What caught my eye this week.
Always remember the stock market strives to make as many people who express an opinion look as foolish as possible.
Indices – especially in the US – have been rising despite Covid-19 still spreading across the globe.
People said [1] it was dumb. They blamed day-traders on their iPhones [2].
Warren Buffett looked shell-shocked [3] at his pandemic-poopered shareholder meeting on 2 May, as he explained why he wasn’t buying anything – why far from grabbing bargains with both hands, he’d pulled the ripcord on his holdings in airline stocks.
Americans were rioting.
Even I owned enough gold to give Mr T [4] a hernia. (Okay, only about 5% of my portfolio, plus a couple of percent in a miner. But still, enough to send my 2012-self [5] into a fury).
And then… on Friday we saw ‘the biggest payroll surprise in history’. It revealed that US employers are now hiring not firing [6].
And the Internet finance kids went wild.
[Video referenced was taken down, presumably due to multiple copyright violations…]
Thinking about everything that has happened over the the past four years and this crazy [7] 2020, if you told me I was living in an extra-terrestrial’s plaything – a sort of The Sims meets The Truman Show – and some Martian producer’s child had been accidentally left in charge of the controls…
Anyway, we hope you didn’t sell [8].
Have a great weekend all.
From Monevator
Negative yields on bonds: what do they mean? – Monevator [9]
What is behind the coronavirus trading boom – Monevator [2]
From the archive-ator: Personal time management for fun and profit – Monevator [10]
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view you can click to read the piece without being a paid subscriber. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing if you read them a lot!1 [11]
The US adds 2.5 million jobs in May. Economists had expected eight million job losses – Reuters [12]
UK house prices fall for third month in a row as Covid-19 stifles market – Guardian [13]
Bank of England will ramp up QE to near-£1 trillion over next year, says Capital Economics – ThisIsMoney [14]
One in seven Help to Buy homes lose value despite local house prices soaring – Which? [15]
Clothing prices falling at a record pace as beleaguered shops prepare to reopen – ThisIsMoney [16]
Australia is in its first recession for 29 years – 7 News [17]
Poll: Four out of five families in UK have more money to spend since lockdown – ThisIsMoney [18]
Misconduct has risen among work-from-home traders – FN London [19]
Hong Kong: Tens of thousands defy ban to attend Tiananmen vigil – BBC [20]
[21][Click to enlarge the economic chasm]
Products and services
Will a coronavirus payment holiday impact your credit score? – Which? [23]
Ominous: Marcus’ new fixed-rate savings account pays less (1%) than its easy access deal (1.05%) – ThisIsMoney [24]
Sign-up to Freetrade via my link [25] and we can both get a free share worth between £3 and £200 – Freetrade [25]
Seedrs [26] partners with equity management platform Capdesk as secondary market hits £1m – Alt Fi [27]
Homes with workshops [Gallery] – Guardian [28]
Comment and opinion
As of 3 June, the US S&P 500 was up 39.6%, for the best 50-day rally ever… – Ryan Detrick via Twitter [29]
…which is extraordinary, so don’t beat yourself up if you hedged or prevaricated – Josh Brown [30]
Massive up and down stock moves in the same year are commoner than you think – A Wealth of Common Sense [31]
Currency hedging: fine for bonds, not for stocks [US but relevant] – Morningstar [32]
Spooked by the crash, an early retiree considers going back to work – Simple Living in Somerset [33]
The upside of a down market – Humble Dollar [34]
Three reasons stocks are rising – The Atlantic [35]
Larry Swedroe: Think carefully before you add gold to your portfolio – Seeking Alpha [36]
Naughty corner: Active antics
Steadfast, greedy, or fearful? – Elm Funds [37]
Oil is the only sector of the US market that still looks truly under-valued – Morningstar [38]
How Facebook and Google created a ‘kill zone’ – Klement on Investing [39]
The importance of consistently covered dividends – UK Value Investor [40]
20 global investment trusts compared – IT Investor [41]
Who should we believe about tail-risk hedging? – BNN Bloomberg [42]
Covid corner
“At any given time between 17 May and 30 May 2020, we estimated that an average of 0.10% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05% to 0.18%); this equates to an average of 53,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 25,000 to 99,000)” – ONS [43]
Cambridge researchers say coronavirus transmission rate may be rising in the East of England – ITV [44]
Could more UK lives have been saved? – BBC [45]
Flatten it? In Iceland they eliminated the curve – New Yorker [46]
South Korea is to start logging citizens who go to nightclubs as part of tackling Covid-19 – Reuters [47]
Karl Friston: ‘Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”’ – Guardian [48] & Unherd Interview [49] [Video]
Sweden is accelerating the launch of an inquiry into its no-lockdown coronavirus strategy – Business Insider [50]
The good and bad lessons from Sweden – Karen Landman via Medium [51]
The post-lockdown economy explained [Video] – The Economist [52]
Quarantine tips and lessons from 17th Century Florence [Video] – YouTube [53]
Black Americans are twice as likely to be hospitalized from Covid-19 – MarketWatch [54]
Kindle book bargains
The Anti-Procrastination Mindset by Harry Heijligers – £0.99 on Kindle [55]
The Perils of Perception: Why We’re Wrong About Nearly Everything by Bobby Duffy – £1.99 on Kindle [56]
How To Day Trade For A Living by Andrew Aziz [Wealth warning [57]!] – £0.99 on Kindle [58]
The Spider Network: The Wild Story of a Maths Genius and One of the Greatest Scams in Financial History by David Enrich – £1.99 on Kindle [59]
Off our beat
The UK electricity system was coal-free in May, thanks to the sunny weather and lockdown – Guardian [60]
Consider a gap year – Seth Godin [61]
‘I’ve never felt so close to anyone this quickly’: the whirlwind romances of lockdown – Guardian [62]
Tobi Lutke, founder of Shopify, on building a modern business [Podcast] – Invest Like the Best [63]
How to convince your boss you need time off – Harvard Business Review [64]
“It’s like a burning theater, and everyone is trying to get to the door”: Oil traders on the day prices went negative – Vanity Fair [65] [h/t Abnormal Returns [66]]
And finally…
“I like to say, “Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.”
– Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing [67]
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- Note some articles can only be accessed through the search results if you’re using PC/desktop view (from mobile/tablet view they bring up the firewall/subscription page). To circumvent, switch your mobile browser to use the desktop view. On Chrome for Android: press the menu button followed by “Request Desktop Site”. [↩ [73]]