What caught my eye this week.
Charlie Munger [1] used to say that to be really sure of our convictions, we must be able to argue the opposite side.
If you agree and you’re a fan of early retirement, then get yourself a glass of whiskey and/or a couple of Ibuprofen and buckle up to digest the anti-FIRE message loud and clear.
Because this week Jared Dillian of the punchily-named We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards blog took on The FIRE Movement [2]:
Joe graduates from college and gets a job in the cube farm for $80,000 a year. He gets the cheapest apartment possible, rides a bike instead of driving, and eats ramen noodles.
He does this for ten years, saving up to 70% of his income, and investing it in low-cost index funds. At the end of ten years, he has a million or so saved up, more if he is lucky. At that point, he retires to play the guitar or paint happy little trees, and gradually draws down his savings over time.
If the stock market keeps going up as planned, he can stay retired for 50 more years, and get really good at guitar.
This the fucking stupidest thing I have ever heard of in my life.
I enjoyed the post [2], but then I often link to Dillian’s writing. He swears a lot and takes no prisoners – but hey, it worked for Quentin Tarantino.
Also, I don’t consider feisty articles uploaded into the void as a personal attack, which helps.
But of course there’s a lot that’s wrong in Dillian’s FIRE1 [3] summary.
Nobody serious in ‘the movement’ uses a 12% expected return to underwrite their financial futures, as he claims.
Indeed, when outside-the-movement pundit Dave Ramsey suggested something similar recently, FIRE elders [4] took him to pieces. As for The Accumulator, he is downright parsimonious [5].
More subjectively, Dillian’s take on whether and why people would pursue a FIRE-forward lifestyle is hyperbolic, and his love of consumption culture seems archaic to me.
That’s okay. We all think differently, and our views evolve too.
Monevator began life as a blog championing early retirement [6], but I don’t actually believe it’s a good idea for most anymore. We debated the pros and cons [7] a while ago.
However I do love and cherish financial independence. And for me that wouldn’t have been possible if I’d lived life the way Dillian describes.
Know your enemies
It’s good to be challenged, so have a read of the whole article. He makes a couple of fair points as he sprays his gun around. Even if he’s targeting some of the least objectionable people you can imagine.
Where do I agree with him?
Well, I do think someone should probably change jobs if they’re that unhappy, rather than slogging it out for two decades on the prospect of a grand escape.
I also doubt whether most deeply unhappy people will be made happier by having more time to sit around thinking about it. There’s probably something else going on.
Finally, I don’t believe a 50-year long retirement – as in never working for money again – is optimal. In my observation though few truly early FIRE-ees actually end up never working again anyway.
You may think differently. Jared Dillian does. And again, that’s all fine.
One huge virtue of the FIRE concept is it’s not trying to change anybody else’s world. Your politics might have made our country poorer and my holidays more of a hassle. But your savings rate is your own affair. It hurts me not a jot.
Where some see solipsism in FIRE, I see humility and the serenity prayer [8].
I guess that sounds boring and worthy, and not half as much fun as swearing. Dillian’s post is more entertaining. No doubt it boosted his website traffic.
But you know what else is entertaining?
Being free to do whatever you want to with your weekdays before you’re 50. And not having to care what anybody else – boss, random blogger, or brother-in-law – thinks about it.
Have a great weekend!
From Monevator
The quixotic quest to live off a natural yield from ETFs and other passive funds – Monevator [9] [Members [10]]
How to make one million pounds – Monevator [11]
From the archive-ator: Reasons to rent a house instead of buying – Monevator [12]
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
Interest rate cuts still expected, despite UK inflation uptick – BBC [13]
Record 50,004 limited buy-to-let companies set up in 2023 – This Is Money [14]
London property price falls in 2023, by borough – Evening Standard [15]
Home Office U-turns on rights of EU citizens in UK before Brexit – Guardian [16]
Blackrock beats spot Bitcoin ETF rivals in race to $1bn in assets – Blockworks [17]
‘Manipulative’ dating app fraudster jailed – BBC [18]
[19]
Why is it still so hard to build new homes in England? [Search result] – FT [20]
Products and services
Seven tips to get a UK train ticket as cheaply as possible – This Is Money [21]
How to plan and pay for your funeral in the UK – Guardian [22]
Get between £100 and £1,500 cashback when you open an ISA with Interactive Investor [23] before 31 Jan. New customers only. Minimum £2,000 deposit. Terms apply. Capital at risk – Interactive Investor [23]
Six things you need to know before using equity release – Which [24]
Is HelloFresh good value for money? – Be Clever With Your Cash [25]
Electric cars will get cheaper in 2024 thanks to an imminent price war – This Is Money [26]
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link [27] and get up to £50 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine [27]
LNER scraps off-peak rail tickets between London and Edinburgh – Guardian [28]
Homes for commuters, in pictures – Guardian [29]
Comment and opinion
Divert national insurance cut bonus to a pension, experts say – Guardian [30]
How to avoid becoming miserably rich – A Teachable Moment [31]
Will ditching coffee make you a millionaire? – Morningstar [32]
Despite everything, UK house prices rose in 2024 [Podcast] – The Property Podcast [33]
Should you put all your investment eggs in one basket? [Search result] – FT [34]
Bad luck Beans – Money With Katie [35]
What do the rich really think about a wealth tax? – Guardian [36]
The noisiness of financial factors [Search result, nerdy] – FT [37]
Advice for landlords – Humble Dollar [38]
Five simple investing ideas – Darius Foroux [39]
What makes a good prophecy? [A few weeks old] – Tim Harford [40]
[US] stocks versus bonds mini-special
The Holy Grail of portfolio diversification – A Wealth of Common Sense [41]
Stocks have not always beaten bonds. Should you care? – Morningstar [42]
Historical returns for US stocks, bonds, and cash – A Wealth of Common Sense [43]
Naughty corner: Active antics
FTSE 100 valuation and forecast – UK Dividend Stocks [44]
Investors to avoid – Investment Talk [45]
There’s a record $6 trillion sitting in US money market funds – Apollo [46]
Using a negative checklist to reduce investing errors – Novel Investor [47]
The S&P 500 looks as expensive as ever… – Apollo [48]
…but US small caps are historically cheap – Institutional Investor [49]
Kindle book bargains
What They Don’t Teach You About Money by Claer Barrett – £1.99 on Kindle [50]
Kleptopia: How Dirty Money is Conquering the World by Tom Burgis – £0.99 on Kindle [51]
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb – £1.99 on Kindle [52]
Make Your Bed by William McRaven – £0.99 on Kindle [53]
Environmental factors
Why nuclear energy is the best energy- Uncharted Territories [54]
Brexit divergence from UK destroying UK’s vital environmental protections – Guardian [55]
Turn wasted wind energy into green hydrogen to save UK billions, study says – Recharge [56]
The fight against blast fishing in Tanzania – Hakai [57]
Climate change warning over Scottish forestry cuts – BBC [58]
UK water industry’s ‘urgent’ plan to tackle sewage delayed by four months – Guardian [59]
Return to the office latest mini-special
Don’t sleep with your boss – Dror Poleg [60]
UK judge rules against FCA manager who wanted to work from home [Search result] – FT [61]
60 Minutes on US commercial real estate – The Big Picture [62]
Robot overlord roundup
A.I. heralds the next generation of financial scams [Search result] – FT [63]
Is A.I. the death of I.P.? – The New Yorker [64]
Off our beat
The tyranny of the algorithm: why every coffee shop looks the same – Guardian [65]
Information that would get your attention – Morgan Housel [66]
Is it any wonder Gen Z struggles with job interviews? – Guardian [67]
Wine was my poison. Now it’s my sober passion [Search result] – FT [68]
When one twin goes vegan and the other doesn’t – Vox [69]
The labour of inspiration – More To That [70]
And finally…
“Quite possibly there’s nothing as fine as a big freight train starting across country in early summer, Hardesty thought. That’s when you learn that the tragedy of plants is that they have roots.”
– A New York Winter’s Tale [71], Mark Helprin
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- Financial Independence Retire Early. [↩ [79]]