What caught my eye this week.
There are so many unanswered questions at this stage of the coronavirus pandemic and COVID-19 crash:
- How many people in the UK have already had coronavirus? (I suspect huge numbers, but what do I know…)
- Will Boris Johnson be a better or worse PM giving orders over Zoom?
- Can we let Rishi Sunak have a go instead?
- Where is Warren Buffett and why hasn’t he declared he’s buying?
- Just how long will the population put up with lockdown life?
- Just how long will my new-ish girlfriend put up with lockdown life with me?
Apologies, I’m not in a very serious mood. Perhaps I’m already going a little stir crazy.
Loafing around
This week like the last six has been mildly manic for me. Especially considering that most of it was played out in a 2.5 bedroom London flat with – thank heavens – a garden.
Besides work (I’ve still got plenty to do, for which I’m grateful) I did well over 100 trades in March alone, dusting off my old playbook from the financial crisis.
(Tentative playbook title – Rearranging Deckchairs on the Titanic: Tactical Trading In A Time Of COVID-19).
Meanwhile my sensibly staunchly passive co-blogger has been smothered by his job despite self-isolating away from it. But when it comes to his portfolio he’s sticking to the plan. He’s not selling [1]. And he’s only buying what his long ago automated set-up [2] does for him.
He’ll inherit the earth, that one.
Meanwhile some of you are going a bit nutty too.
For example long-time reader TheRhino has been in contact. He tells me – and supplied evidence – that he’s been knocking out Monevator-branded artisanal sourdough loaves:
[3]When we said our site was about “making dough”…
How I’d love to be having friends over to break bread with… but of course that’s a relic of what already seems 100-years ago. I’m a natural self-isolator by day, but I do miss mixing at night. I mean not over Skype, of course. You know, real mixing where you might catch something you’d be ashamed of.
I miss just going for long rambling walks far from home.
Like most of us in London I’m instead only venturing out once every day or two, half-surprised to see houses still standing and a car drive past. All the cherry and magnolia trees are in bloom, petals falling to the floor, mostly unseen. Almost nobody is drinking coffee on the street and obviously not in the now-closed cafes. It reminds me of the London I arrived at in the early 1990s. It seems so bizarre now.
I wave my M&S reusable plastic bag about as I hustle along, so everyone knows I’m on a government-sanctioned outing.
Barely started
This bear market hasn’t been bad for me so far, touch wood. I’m well ahead of my benchmarks – though decidedly down, of course. I’m over the shock and back into the swing of things – and getting used to metaphorically being punched in the face every day.
But the lockdown? It’s a bummer. And we’re barely two weeks in.
As for the deep economic drawdown – it hasn’t even gotten going yet.
Eek.
Still, have a great weekend, whatever room this finds you in. 🙂
From Monevator
The coronavirus crash, as told by the Monevator community – Monevator [4]
From the archive-ator: The hidden benefits of financial freedom – Monevator [5]
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view you can click to read the piece without being a paid subscriber. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing if you read them a lot!1 [6]
Prime Minister Boris Johnson tests positive for coronavirus – BBC [7]
Chancellor is now also giving support to millions of self-employed individuals… – GOV.UK [8]
…but some, such as one-person limited companies, fall between the cracks – Guardian [9]
US weekly initial unemployment claims increase to 3,283,000 [Unprecedented rise] – Calculated Risk [10]
Housing market frozen by government during coronavirus lockdown – Guardian [11]
Income investors face ‘dividend drought’ [Search result] – FT [12]
S&P warns that bond default rates will surge, perhaps as high as 10% – Institutional Investor [13]
[14][Click to enlarge the suffering]
Products and services
How to get refunds for school fees, season tickets and much more [Search result] – FT [16]
Barclays and Halifax withdraw the majority of mortgages – ThisIsMoney [17]
Leaky Lockdown: Are you allowed to call a plumber out to fix a broken boiler? – ThisIsMoney [18]
Tesco limits online to 80 orders per customer to speed up deliveries – Guardian [19]
How are P2P lenders responding to the coronavirus pandemic? – Peer2Peer Finance News [20]
At least ten cruise ships are still stuck at sea as a result of the pandemic – Guardian [21]
Comment and opinion
Asset allocation in the most painful month – Portfolio Charts [22]
Here’s why you should rebalance your portfolio – Morningstar [23]
Anchors a-weigh! – The Psy-Fi blog [24]
The property market where people can’t leave their house? – ThisIsMoney [25]
The greatest investment quotes of all-time – Of Dollars and Data [26]
Surviving your very first market crash – A Wealth of Common Sense [27]
Is it too late to de-risk? – Morningstar [28]
Inflation, deflation, confiscation & devastation: The Four Horsemen of Risk – Wade Pfau [29]
How the crisis nearly blew up one of the world’s safest trades [Podcast] – OddLots via Overcast [30]
Of natural beauty and interesting markets – Simple Living in Somerset [31]
Stock index weights are [post-crash]… different – Klement on Investing [32]
[33]
Lower share prices mean that 10-year expected returns are well up – Vanguard [34]
Naughty corner: Active antics
NYE professor Aswath Damodaran has been writing weekly crisis pieces that are worth your time – Musings on Markets [35]
Data showing the dramatic de-rating of US stocks, especially small caps [but beware ‘E’ collapse in P/E] – Meb Faber [36]
Blizzard, Winter, or Ice Age? – Patrick O’Shaughnessy [37]
The potential impact of the coronavirus on dividends – UK Value Investor [38]
Merryn Somerset-Webb: Some rare coronavirus good news – equities are cheap [Search result] – FT [39]
The worst crash in history: A view from the front seat – FireVLondon [40]
A deep dive into Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, post-crash – Rational Walk [41]
COVID-19 Corner
What to make of headlines that 50% of the UK population may have had COVID-19? – Wired [42]
The four possible timelines for life returning to normal – The Atlantic [43]
How the UK got coronavirus testing wrong [Free to read] – FT [44]
A deep dive into the economic cost of social distancing – McKinsey & Company [45]
Wounds heal, scars last – Morgan Housel [46]
Italian scientists investigate possible earlier emergence of coronavirus – Reuters [47]
The Ibuprofen debate reveals the danger of COVID-19 rumors – WIRED [48]
Compaq and the coronavirus – Stratechery [49]
Please, let’s stop the epidemic of armchair epidemiology – Slate [50]
Kindle book bargains
The 80/20 Principle: Achieving More With Less by Richard Koch – £0.99 on Kindle [51]
How to Get Rich by Felix Dennis [Will have to dust this off given the bear market!] – £1.99 on Kindle [52]
One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch – £0.99 on Kindle [53]
RESET: How to Restart Your Life and Get F.U. Money by Dave Sawyer – £0.99 on Kindle [54]
Off our beat
Jonathan Pie is in lockdown [Video] – via YouTube [55]
A crisis is a time to build momentum, not lose it – Rad Reads [56]
Are serial entrepreneurs really smarter – or just lucky? – Fast Company [57]
And finally…
“Visions of unavoidable collapse have been in the ascendant.”
– Vaclav Smil, Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years [58]
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- Note some articles can only be accessed through the search results if you’re using PC/desktop view (from mobile/tablet view they bring up the firewall/subscription page). To circumvent, switch your mobile browser to use the desktop view. On Chrome for Android: press the menu button followed by “Request Desktop Site”. [↩ [64]]