What caught my eye this week.
Has winter dragged on for you too, or is it just me? I asked ChatGPT if the weather has been unusually cold and it waffled on for a bit with some anecdotes and then said I should check with the BBC.
Which seemed pretty unhelpful, but then I thought it’s also scarily similar to what you’d actually hear if you asked your nearest mate.
Anyway it has been especially chilly [1] for the past few days. January saw the UK’s coldest night since 2015 [2]. Meanwhile on renewable energy investor forums I see debates about whether the slowdown [3] in the North Atlantic conveyor has caused the wind to not blow as much as was forecasted. Which could explain why I’ve worn gloves every day since November.
But I also know I’m prone to Seasonally Affected Depression.
Every January I think I’ve dodged it and then it kicks in – well, about now – and I find myself reading articles about emigrating [4] to Australia.
And yet crazed with cold fever I also ran these numbers [5] on living on a canal boat. A definite case of jumping out of the refrigerator and into the icebox.
Chill brains
A big problem with emotions is how they skew judgement.
For instance I just saw this story [6] about the Met police objecting to a new jazz club in Covent Garden on the grounds that drunk patrons might get mugged on the way home. It seemed ridiculous and I despaired at what London has become since I first arrived in the early-1990s.
But actually…safer is one thing it has become. So am I properly weighting that as I read the story against what mostly appears to me to be the enfeebling of London’s citizens and its nightlife?
Politics is where this emotional distortion effect looms largest.
Perhaps you’ve read in my previous Weekend Reading links how someone’s perceptions instantly reverse [7] in the US depending on whether their favoured candidate is in the White House? So far-reaching is Trump’s chaos theory politics that I don’t doubt it’s affecting me too.
Then again there’s enough to be dispirited about closer to home.
Not least that despite demonstrably hobbling the UK economy – to the tune of £1,750 per person, annually [8] – with his economically insensible Brexit, Nigel Farage is back and doling out his sounds-about-right slop to the same credulous faction who fell for it last time [9].
We’re told his resurgent [10] Reform party could even dethrone the Conservatives.
Who knows? Though nobody could do a better job of unseating the Tory party than the Tory party managed over the past decade.
The Reform party this week said it would tax [11] renewable energy, reflecting the party leadership’s long history of climate denial [12]. Soon British policy could be driven by the motiviations of an angry middle-aged man in a near-empty pub on a Wednesday afternoon shouting at the television in the corner.
Elsewhere The Atlantic [13] is reflecting on how Covid deniers won – politically, not scientifically – and Politico [14] listed the 37 ways the supposedly disavowed ‘Project 2025’ has already shown up in Trump’s executive orders.
It’s depressing.
Cold comfort
But maybe you’re depressed about me bringing politics to your otherwise favourite financial resource?
Well I have some sympathy, believe it or not.
Over the past six months I’ve grown increasingly irritated at how one of my favourite small-cap share pundits has spent years bemoaning British doomsters as unpatriotic while he dismisses the idea that Brexit had any impact on the UK economy – even as he repeatedly sees an economic recovery around the corner and then is mystified when we instead limp along in semi-stagflation.
Stick to shares, I mutter – obviously in large part because I disagree with him.
Perhaps as you did with me above.
Naturally I think I’m even-handed. For example I flagged up the failings I saw in Rachel Reeves’ budget.
But then I would think that, wouldn’t I?
We all believe we’re above-average drivers.
The big political currents underway seem too important to avoid any mention of on my own website, even if only from a narrow financial perspective – which I do mostly try to stick to. It’s a highfalutin thing to say, but it almost feels irresponsible to look the other way when I have a platform.
Yet I really can see the sense in Jaren Dillan’s perspective at We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, when he argues it’s okay to ignore politics [15]:
Do you want to be right, or do you want to be happy?
Let’s say you choose the former. Good luck? Maybe get back to me in four years with a list of what you actually accomplished.
Yes, I am suggesting that we are all impotent. Yes, I am suggesting that one person can’t make a difference. Yes, I am just that cynical.
But deep down—do you disagree with me? Do you think that your rage-posting on social media is going to make a difference? Not only will it not make a difference, it is counterproductive, because, chances are, you’re turning people off in the process.
I know he’s probably right. Who has changed their mind about Brexit, despite its non-existent achievements? The polls have mostly turned against it only because so many of its supporters have died [16].
Oh well, at least my portfolio is up nicely so far in 2025.
And we’re inching towards spring…surely?
Have a great weekend!
p.s. Moguls [17]: I didn’t get a chance to send out the Monevator merchandise email this week – so don’t worry, you haven’t missed out on the fashion event of the century. The next two to three days for sure!
From Monevator
Investing in infrastructure – Monevator [18] [Members [17]]
Lab-grown diamonds – Monevator [19]
From the archive-ator: Should you invest in buy-to-let through a limited company? – Monevator [20]
News
Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view click through to read the article. Try privacy/incognito mode to avoid cookies. Consider subscribing to sites you visit a lot.
UK economy saw 0.1% growth in final months of 2024 – Yahoo Finance [21]
Why 1.5m Britons are still hunting for a job – Guardian [22]
Annuity sales jump 24% to a ten-year high – ABI [23]
Nationwide claims big cash ISA deposits are funding a lot of mortgages – Guardian [24]
Government must stop ‘ridiculous’ proliferation of millions of small pension pots – IFS [25]
First-time buyer market rebounds with 19% more purchases… – IFA Mag [26]
…but beware: just seven weeks until stamp duty increases – This Is Money [27]
Thames Water launches appeal to raise bills even higher – Guardian [28]
Non-dom tax raid forces Castle-owning fintech founder out of UK – CityAM [29]
Local government pension schemes headed for embarrassment of riches [Search result, nerdy] – FT [30]
2025E Capex / 2025E Net Income
[31]
What will be the return on the Magnificent Seven’s A.I. spending? – Verdad [32]
Products and services
How Vanguard plans to play disruptor again – FT [33]
Barclays and Santander cut mortgages rates below 4%… – What Mortgage [34]
…but Barclays has also cuts its easy-access savings rate to just 1.26% – T.I.M. [35]
You can get up to £3,000 cashback when you transfer your pension to Interactive Investor [36]. Terms and fees apply. – Interactive Investor [36]
Goldman Sachs targets leading role in active ETFs in Europe – FT [37]
Will you miss out on the full state pension? – Be Clever With Your Cash [38]
…some people are struggling to find out – This Is Money [39]
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link [40] and get up to £100 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine [40]
What does ‘making tax digital’ actually mean? – Which [41]
Vintage experts on 21 ways to buy secondhand treasures – Guardian [42]
Does living in a hard water area make energy bills more expensive? – This Is Money [43]
Homes for sale with links to TV and film, in pictures – Guardian [44]
Comment and opinion
OBR gloom spells trouble ahead for Rachel Reeves – The Spectator [45]
Feeling guilty about an inheritance – Kindness FP [46]
“My 1.3% mortgage rate is soaring to 4.5%” – Telegraph via Yahoo Finance [47]
The misery value of money – A Teachable Moment [48]
Baby Maeve and the Ovarian Lottery – Best Interest [49]
The five types of wealth [Podcast] – Plain English [50]
More evidence index fund flows are boosting large cap share prices… – K.O.I. [51]
Think you’re too smart to be caught by scammers? [Search result] – FT [52]
The perils of line-item thinking – Behavioural Investment [53]
Why speculators are still running wild when money is no longer free – FT [54]
Never apply for a job online again – Hot Takes [55]
$1 million is still a lot of money… – Of Dollars and Data [56]
…but who wants to look like a million dollars these days? – Guardian [57]
Alternative assets mini-special
Financial firms are still pushing to turn alternative assets into ‘liquid alts’ – I.I. [58]
Did real assets hedge the Covid-era inflation spike? – CFA Institute [59]
US endowments join crypto rush by building Bitcoin portfolios [Search result] – FT [60]
Naughty corner: Active antics
Broken markets? – The Brooklyn Investor [61]
OnlyFan’s sticky business model – SatPost [62]
An interview with Fundsmith founder Terry Smith [Podcast] – R.W.H. via Apple [63]
Commoditisation in the active management industry – BakStack [64]
Primary sources – Rational Walk [65]
The house of cards built by startups and VCs – Crunchbase [66]
Kindle book bargains
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb – £0.99 on Kindle [67]
The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor – £0.99 on Kindle [68]
Edible Economics by Ha-Joon Chang – £0.99 on Kindle [69]
Taxtopia by The Rebel Accountant – £0.99 on Kindle [70]
Environmental factors
World’s sea-ice falls to record low – BBC [71]
Long-term investors split with asset managers over climate risk – FT [72]
It’s hard to cut out single-use plastic for even one month – Guardian [73]
London’s new super sewer is now fully connected – BBC [74]
Robot overlord roundup
Three observations – Sam Altman [75]
Ex-Google boss fears for AI ‘Bin Laden scenario’ – BBC [76]
The embarrassing failure of the Paris AI summit – Transformer [77]
Two AIs discuss AI in an AI podcast – Not Your Advisor [78] [and how to fool them [79]]
At work, a quiet AI revolution is underway… [Search result] – FT [80]
…but not at one law firm, which now restricts AI use – BBC [81]
Trade wars mini-special
Trump VAT threat raises fears of hit to UK – BBC [82]
Deglobalisation: diversification rather than decoupling – Klement on Investing [83]
When are tariffs good? – Noahpinion [84]
Mario Draghi: Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself [Search result] – FT [85]
Off our beat
100 years of London skyscrapers – Londonist [86]
How to achieve immortality – The Honest Broker [87]
Why Gen Z will never leave home – Maclean’s [88] [h/t Abnormal Returns [89]]
LinkedIn is a weird, workaholic wasteland – Sherwood [90]
Is romance in movies dying? The stats are in… – Stephen Follows [91]
…and they’re also in on whether people hate Coldplay – Stat Significant [92]
How to write a good sex scene – Lit Hub [93]
And finally…
“As soon as something stops being fun, I think it’s time to move on. Life is too short to be unhappy. Waking up stressed and miserable is not a good way to live.”
– Richard Branson, Screw It, Let’s Do It [94]
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