What caught my eye this week.
Investing in riskier asset classes usually delivers higher returns in the long-term – unless you’re putting money into emerging markets as opposed to developed ones.
Economic shocks are more important to investors than geopolitics – unless the politicians turn to global war.
Geographic diversification has improved your return profile – unless you were a domestic investor in the US, Mexico, South Africa, or [checks notes] Chile.
Just a few of the (paraphrased) insights I gleaned from skimming the new UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook [1].
When I first encountered this annual stats smorgasbord from professors Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton 20 years ago – when it was the Credit Suisse Yearbook – it seemed like something out of J.K. Rowling.
Here were the secrets of the investment universe, compiled into one handy tome!
But subsequent years have shown again and again that past is only partially prologue in our particular fantasy realm. (Negative interest rates, anyone?)
All the same, I’ll always have a read of the Yearbook. Even the PDF summary is packed with morsels such as:
Since 1900, equities and bonds have on several occasions lost more than 70% in real terms.
Yet a 60:40 equity:bond blend has never declined more than 50%.
It’s just that after nearly three decades in the game, I see a statistic like that and think, “I suppose it’s overdue then…”
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
Gold: an asset for troubled times – Monevator [2]
The cheapest stocks and shares ISA on the market – Monevator [3]
From the archive-ator: Why commodities belong in your portfolio – Monevator [4]
News
UK regulator examines glitch that showed customers others’ accounts – Guardian [5]
OECD warns UK is the only country with inflation above 3% – This Is Money [6]
Revolut finally has a full British banking license – CNBC [7]
UK house prices hit £301,151, says Halifax – This Is Money [8]
AI scams drove UK reports of fraud to 440,000 last year – Guardian [9]
Government under fire over ‘bungled’ crypto ISA policy [Paywall] – FT [10]
IEA agrees to release record 400m barrels of oil – CNBC [11]
Rented property in UK sees ‘largest value decline this century’ – This Is Money [12]
Tesla set to supply electricity in Britain – Reuters [13]
Trump sees massive increase in wealth as new billionaire list released – Sky [14]
[15]
The debt beneath the data centre dream – Om [16]
Products and services
Disclosure: Links to platforms may be affiliate links, where we may earn a commission. This article is not personal financial advice. When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested. With commission-free brokers other fees may apply. See terms and fees. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Average mortgage rate tops 5% as lenders scurry to reprice loans – Guardian [17]
Low-cost platform Lightyear has further reduced its fees – Lightyear [18]
Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this affiliate link [19]. Terms apply – Charles Stanley [19]
Barclays switch offer: £200, or £400 for a premium account – B.C.W.Y.C. [20]
What’s happening to home insurance premiums? – Which [21]
Get up to £3,000 cashback when you open or switch to an Interactive Investor [22] SIPP. Terms and fees apply, affiliate link – Interactive Investor [22]
Five mistakes not to make in your will – Which [23]
Why authenticator apps are the best option for security – Oblivious Investor [24]
First-class stamps going up to £1.80 from April – Be Clever With Your Cash [25]
Victorian homes for sale, in pictures – Guardian [26]
Comment and opinion
The 60/40 portfolio versus the bucket strategy – A Retirement Manifesto [27]
Government is seizing ‘Henry VIII’ powers to direct pensions – This Is Money [28]
How to rig an index to appease a billionaire – Keubiko’s Musings [29]
Ways to cut the cost of commuting – Guardian [30]
Why is it so hard to predict financial markets? – Behavioural Investment [31]
“I make good money. Why do I still feel like this?” – Your Brain on Money [32]
Rich or poor, we all share the same fate – The Root of All [33]
How the Middle East war could affect your finances – Which [34]
Buffett’s 90/10 is wrong. Even though it’s right – Humble Dollar [35]
Portfolio theory in a spreadsheet [Podcast] – Rational Reminder [36]
Naughty corner: Active antics
Hijacking the huckster’s hypebook – Investing 101 [37]
Exploring real wealth creation in UK stocks [Research] – J.O.A.M. [38]
The untold story of Reddit – Quartr [39]
Ten things on Berkshire Hathaway’s 10K – Kingswell [40]
The best defensive strategies: two centuries of evidence [Nerdy, research] – Alpha Architect [41]
Home or office working mini-special
Average UK office attendance at highest level since before Covid – Guardian [42]
The great central London office crisis – Standard [43]
Is legal uncertainty killing remote work productivity? – The Conversation [44]
Kindle book bargains
The End of Reality by Jonathan Taplin – £0.99 on Kindle [45]
Boomerang by Michael Lewis – £0.99 on Kindle [46]
Money Men by Dan McCrum – £0.99 on Kindle [47]
Economica by Victoria Bateman – £0.99 on Kindle [48]
Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator store [49]
Environmental factors
Net zero by 2050 is cheaper for the UK than just one fossil fuel crisis – Guardian [50]
The planet is overheating. Why is the news looking away? – Grist [51]
Peak District carbon capture plans hit opposition – BBC [52]
Reversing extinction – Aeon [53]
Can plastic-eating fungi help clean up nappy waste? – BBC [54]
Extreme heat now affects one in three people globally, study finds – Guardian [55]
Robot overlord roundup
The labour market impacts of AI so far – Anthropic [56]
A library of ‘thinking prompts’ for Claude and other chatbots – Tom’s Guide [57]
The legibility problem with AI science… – Asimov Press [58]
…and the same sort of discussion regarding maths – Daniel Litt [59]
The lobster – SpyGlass [60]
Minimum wages and the rise of the robots [Research, nerdy, PDF] – NBER [61]
Not at the dinner table
Carneymania is sweeping Canada – The Walrus [62]
The Iranian warship the US sunk was unarmed. The US Navy knew it – New Republic [63]
Why shadow tankers are the only ships moving through that Strait – The Conversation [64]
TACOs with a side order of war porn – The Bulwark [65]
I am sick and tired of all the winning – Drezner’s World [66]
Freak out! – The Pursuit of Happiness [67]
A web of financial ties between Trump officials and the industries they regulate – ProPublica [68]
Why the US is facing a military defeat in Iran – Policy Tensor [69]
What happens when low-skilled immigration is curbed [Research] – NBER [70]
Off our beat
How geography determines architecture – Uncharted Territories [71]
The science of personality change – Range Widely [72]
Patrons of journalism – How Things Work [73]
Should people start paying to visit the UK’s free museums? – Independent [74]
Is low fertility in high-income countries here to stay? – C.R.R. [75]
Rewind through 30 years of the World Wide Web [Interactive] – Web Rewind [76]
Let it go – We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards [77]
And finally…
“The statistic that separates skilled investors from the rest is the payoff ratio. If the hit ratio measures how often the investor right, the payoff ratio measures how right the investor usually is.”
– Clare Flynn Levy, Stock Market Maestros [78]
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