What caught my eye this week.
When I wrote a few weeks ago that pre-Budget speculation had reached a fever pitch, I was wrong.
Turned out that was mere pre-Budget babble. This week was the fever.
I have no more speculation to add. Not least because Whitehall-based readers seem to have picked up on my suggestion that freezing the income tax thresholds for a few more years might be the least worst way to raise (and broaden) the tax take, if taxes must indeed be raised.1 [1]
As well as hiking inheritance tax, of course.
Both got more airtime this week – see below – so I guess my work is done.
Budget game for a laugh
I’m being facetious of course.
While Monevator has surely snuck into the email boxes of those near those in power, it’s obvious that everything anyone can think of has already been put onto the table for consideration with this Budget.
“Shouldn’t we give the Window Tax [2] a second look?”
“What was wrong with that Poll Tax [3] malarkey again?”
Sub-optimal, but if you think you can do better, try the FT’s new Chancellor Game [4]. Playing it reminded me of the 1980s movie WarGames, where a computer realises there’s no winning World War 3.
This was the best I managed:
[5]
I tilted my Budget towards growth and ramped up education and free school meals.
The latter gave me pause though. Neither the economy nor voters would benefit from my investments in the future before the next election – let alone before the weekend papers and talk shows.
And so are born the headline-grabbing gimmicks and rabbits out of hats of Budget Day that complicate financial planning for years…
More pre-Budget reading:
- 100 days of miserablism: can Labour get out of its Budget mess? – This Is Money [6]
- Rachel Reeves looks to keep ‘stealth tax’ freeze on thresholds [Search result] – FT [7]
- Inheritance tax increases expected – BBC [8]
- Lump sum withdrawals ‘surge’ while contributions ‘plummet’ [allegedly] – Independent via MSN [9]
- Chancellor to leave capital gains on property untouched, reports claim – Guardian [10]
Have a great weekend.
From Monevator
Manage your index-linked gilts with our spreadsheet – Monevator [11] [Members [12]]
FIRE-side chat: Secret Squirrel – Monevator [13]
From the archive-ator: How to run your portfolio like a hedge fund – Monevator [14]
News
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Fall in UK inflation supports a November rate cut – Morningstar [15]
House prices rise for the sixth month in a row… – Office for National Statistics [16]
…and gross buy-to-let rental yields are at a record high, says agent… – This Is Money [17]
…but landlord sales are at a record high pre-Budget, too – Rightmove [18]
Canada Life has published a new report on living to 100 [PDF] – Canada Life [19]
Six months left to top up your state pension – Which [20]
Older workers with health conditions sidelined due to ageism – Centre for Aging Better [21]
Jane Street interns make more than Keir Starmer and Jay Powell… – FT [22]
…while Citadel staff’s fund stake triples to $9bn in four years – Yahoo Finance [23]
Meta reportedly fires staffer on $400K a year for spending $25 meal credits on toothpaste – Fortune [24]
[25]
Why aren’t people having babies? – Sherwood [26]
Products and services
Atom Bank’s new best buy savings account pays 4.85%, with a catch – This Is Money [27]
Why are mortgage rates rising and when could they fall again? – The Standard [28]
Get £100-£2,000 cashback when you open a SIPP with Interactive Investor [29] (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – Interactive Investor [29]
Beware the pension recycling rules if you’re making re-Budget withdrawals – T.I.M. [30]
Fidelity’s platform lifts restrictions on RIT Capital investment trust – Investment Week [31]
Open an account with low-cost platform InvestEngine via our link [32] and get up to £50 when you invest at least £100 (T&Cs apply. Capital at risk) – InvestEngine [32]
New rules for Buy Now Pay Later schemes to protect shoppers from 2026 – Which [33]
Uber One review: is it worth the money? – Be Clever With Your Cash [34]
Questions to ask a financial advisor about their model portfolio – Morningstar [35]
Victorian homes for sale, in pictures – Guardian [36]
Comment and opinion
House of mirrors – Money with Katie [37]
The low stability of a high income – Of Dollars and Data [38]
Parenting is, basically, financially ruinous – Guardian [39]
Active equity funds lagging on average, like every year – SPIVA [40]
The S&P 500 won’t do 26% a year forever – A Wealth of Common Sense [41]
Mob rule – Humble Dollar [42]
Five investment lessons from the five best investment books – Darius Foroux [43]
A few thoughts on diversification strategies – Fortune Financial [44]
The laws of financial health – The Uncertainty Of It All [45]
Why you might soon get paid like an Uber driver – Slate [46]
The behavioural science behind your retirement [Podcast] – Standard Deviations [47]
Naughty corner: Active antics
Faith – Albert Bridge Capital [48]
Quarterly hedge fund letters – from Third Point [49] [PDF] and Greenlight Capital [50]
Playing President Trump: options or wagers? – Sherwood [51]
Kindle book bargains
Failed State: Why Nothing Works and How to Fix It by Sam Freedman – £0.99 on Kindle [52]
Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism by Yanis Varoufakis – £0.99 on Kindle [53]
Bad Blood: Elizabeth Holmes and the Theranos Scandal by John Carreyrou – £0.99 on Kindle [54]
Casino: The Rise and Fall of the Mob in Las Vegas by Nicholas Pileggi – £0.99 on Kindle [55]
Environmental factors
Taxing Europe’s frequent flyers could raise €64bn a year, study finds – Guardian [56]
Four ways to make solar panels more effective – Which [57]
Robinhood co-founder wants to create the Starlink of solar power – Fast Company [58]
De-extinction and the wooly mammoth – Garden of Forking Paths [59]
How Europe said bye-bye to Russian gas – JSTOR [60]
Atmospheric rivers are shifting amid global warming – Fast Company [61]
“Hey dude, where’s my self-driving car?” mini-special
Human driving increases transport costs by 10x – Austin Vernon [62]
Can Tesla’s autonomous driving achieve ‘impossible’ dreams like SpaceX? – Stratechery [63]
Low-fi robotaxi parking lot radio [Livestream] – YouTube [64]
Robot overlord roundup
Another AI manifesto just dropped – Sherwood [65]
The future of AI and the US economy, according to Goldman – Faster, Please! [66]
Science and mice mini-special
Has working with mice led autism research astray? – Vox [67]
Eating less can lead to a longer life, according to mouse research – Nature [68]
Off our beat
Thoughts on nostalgia – Morgan Housel [69]
Is OnlyFans catfishing its users? – Hollywood Reporter [70]
Jonathan Clements: Life is full of small pleasures [Podcast] – Morningstar [71]
Marina Hyde: it’s Badenoch versus Jenrick on GB News – Guardian [72]
Elon Musk’s perfect disinformation… – The Garden of Forking Paths [73]
…vs Tim Urban taking a toddler to see the SpaceX spectacular – T.F.P. [74]
The year is 2149 and… [A few weeks old] – MIT Tech Review [75]
Quantifying the Kevin Bacon game – Stat Significant [76]
Why New York is so great [See also London…] – Young Money [77]
The middle of Lidl [Music video] – Goldie Lookin’ Chain via YouTube [78]
And finally…
“There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do.”
– Edwin Lefevre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator [79]
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- Note: I said ‘least worst’. I think the tax take on income especially is already at the upper limit of tolerable. I see a case for wealth taxes but beyond hiking IHT it seems difficult to implement. I wouldn’t tax business any harder and I’d be wary of any changes to capital gains tax. Only economic growth can get us out of this, ultimately. Don’t blame me, I didn’t vote for make-believe sunlit uplands and fantasy dividends. [↩ [87]]