What caught my eye this week.
Twas the night before the budget – give or take – and nothing was stirring, not even a mouse to move a pointer over the button to CALCULATE whether you’d be a winner or loser from the forecast tax changes to come on 26 November.
Everyone was exhausted from months of animal-spirits-sapping speculation. So they tried to rest before the shouting began.
Only Tiny Accumulator was awake. He sat by the empty fireplace in his insulated fat-suit [1], singing a lament:
“On the fifth day before the budget, the chancellor gave to me…
12. Salary sacrifice [2] curbed.
11. Council tax [3] hiked.
10. Will-she-won’t-she income tax rises [4].
9. Stamp duty changes [5].
8. A cut to the cash ISA allowance [6].
7. No more tax relief for bicycles [7].
6. Slashed tax-free pension lump sums [8].
5. Investors thwacked with capital gains [9] and dividend tax [10] rises.
4. NI on pensioner and landlord income [11].
3. Deeper income tax threshold freezes [12].
2. A mansion tax [13].
1. And a black hole [14] for all to see.”
Of course nobody expected to get everything that they didn’t want in the budget. Experts had vied for months on exactly which [15] proposals [16] would [17] make it.
There had been nothing else to do except to prevaricate, to cut spending, hiring, or moving house, and to generally hunker down until the faff-fest passed.
TA knew there’d be business measures in the budget too – bank levies and the like, hopefully offset by more growth initiatives for housebuilding and corporate investment – but all that was above his head.
So he just quietly said again a prayer for his tax-free pension lump sum and for a drawdown [18] unmolested by national insurance charges.
A lump of coal
The truth was even chancellor Rachel Reeves’ own backbenchers wouldn’t be satisfied come budget day. That’s because the pips were already squeezed [19] and squeaking:
[20]
Source: Financial Times [21]
Of course there were two ways to read this graph. One, that the rich were hard-suffering in the UK. Another, that the average person wasn’t making enough money to move the dial anymore.
Only one thing was certain: nobody would be very happy on Thursday morning.
At best you’d be relieved. At worst relieved of more of your hard-earned.
Have a great weekend!
From Monevator
Derisking your portfolio on the run into retirement – Monevator [22]
Using a flexible ISA as a bridging loan – Monevator [23]
From the archive-ator: how portfolio diversification performed when Covid struck – Monevator [24]
News
FSCS bank deposit compensation limit will rise to £120,000 from 1 December – Bank of England [25]
UK inflation fell to 3.6% in October – BBC [26]
Rent controls have backfired in Scotland – Property Industry Eye [27]
Play the Chancellor on Budget day with this new interactive game – Guardian [28]
The energy price cap will rise by 0.2% from January – Ofgem [29]
One million relying solely on the state pension face a £1,400 shortfall – MoneyWeek [30]
New homes earmarked near train stations to get ‘default yes’ from planners – Sky [31]
Home repossessions are rising – BBC [32]
Britain’s top 50 burglary hotspots revealed – This Is Money [33]
Number of Britons leaving the UK higher than previously thought – Sky [34]
[35]
Will your pay peak at 47? – This Is Money [36]
Products and services
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Why your home insurance could leave you out in the cold this winter – Which [37]
Mortgage rate war heats up – This Is Money [38]
Which shops charge people to send things back – Be Clever With Your Cash [39]
Get up to £1,500 cashback when you transfer your cash and/or investments to Charles Stanley Direct through this affiliate link [40]. Terms apply – Charles Stanley [40]
How to save money on energy bills – Guardian [41]
Three things to know before getting over-50s life insurance – Which [42]
Zopa gets into the investment platform business – Zopa [43]
Get up to £200 cashback when you open or switch to an Interactive Investor [44] SIPP. Terms and fees apply, affiliate link. – Interactive Investor [44]
How to get the cheapest Advance train tickets – Be Clever With Your Cash [45]
The top-rated solar panel fitters in the UK – Independent [46]
Mews-style homes for sale, in pictures – Guardian [47]
Comment and opinion
DFA’s active value ETFs now trading in London – DFA [48] [More on small cap value [49]]
Julian Richter: why you should acknowledge your own good fortune – Guardian [50]
Why pay more? – The Falling Knife [51]
Freedom, democracy, and long-term returns – Abnormal Returns [52]
The people behind Warren Buffett – Flyover Stocks [53]
Retirement is a sprint, not a marathon – The Retirement Manifesto [54]
The absurdity of bankers’ retirement fund targets [Paywall] – FT [55]
Hard-working families are ‘being destroyed’ to pay for the benefits class [Not for the rhetoric, but for the eye-opening graph] – Telegraph [56]
You have to own illiquid stuff to understand the downsides – Of Dollars and Data [57]
Simple Living in Suffolk again, for a couple of weeks – Simple Living in Somerset [58]
Ten lessons from Warren Buffett – Morningstar [59]
Naughty corner: Active antics
Jeff Gundlach says almost all assets are overvalued [Podcast] – OddLots [60]
Merger of HICL and TRIG to create largest infrastructure trust – Interactive Investor [61]
A deep dive into the ‘total portfolio approach’ [Paywalled, free to register] – FT [62]
Ball: the king of cans – Quartr [63]
Kindle book bargains
Poor Charlie’s Almanack by Charlie Munger – £0.99 on Kindle [64]
The Man Who Solved the Market by Gregory Zuckerman – £0.99 on Kindle [65]
Chip War by Chris Miller – £0.99 on Kindle [66]
Meltdown: The Collapse of Credit Suisse by Duncan Mavin – £0.99 on Kindle [67]
Or pick up one of the all-time great investing classics – Monevator shop [68]
Environmental factors
China races ahead on renewables amid a green tech boom – Observer [69]
Trump moves to strip endangered species of automatic protections – CNN [70]
Flooded and forgotten: the UK’s waters are rising – Guardian [71]
Future solar power capacity by country [Infographic] – Visual Capitalist [72]
Two-thirds of corals surveyed at Ningaloo Reef are dead, say scientists – Guardian [73]
Brazil ‘surprised’ UK is not investing in new rainforest fund it helped design – Sky [74]
The race to remove millions of plastic beads from Camber Sands – Guardian [75]
Robot overlord roundup
The AI bubble that isn’t there – Forbes [76]
Google boss says $1tn AI investment boom has ‘elements of irrationality’ – BBC [77]
Wall Street blows past AI bubble worries – Wall Street Journal [78]
More than half of novelists believe AI will replace their work – Guardian [79]
Not at the dinner table
Reform plans to strip EU citizens of benefits rights – BBC [80]
Trump’s biggest tell is the trade policy he doesn’t talk about – The Argument [81]
Plans to remove more families from UK in asylum shakeup… – Guardian [82]
…including potentially paying failed asylum seekers more money to leave – BBC [83]
Off our beat
Lost Vegas – Slate [84]
Brains that mistake strangers for friends – Guardian [85]
Our phosphorescent world – Aeon [86]
Ultra-processed foods linked to harm in every organ, study finds – Guardian [87]
Nine questions towards understanding life’s great mystery: you – The Root of All [88]
China’s people are on a treadmill – Noahpinion [89]
Patience – We Are Gonna Get Those Bastards [90]
And finally…
“Sometimes I lie awake at night, or I wander in the field behind my house, or I walk down the street in our local town and think I can see it all around me: the Grid. The veins and sinews of the Machine that surrounds us and pins us and provides for us and defines us now.”
– Paul Kingsnorth, Against the Machine [91]
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