The Euro crisis is back and this time everyone is sick to death of it. The reports I hear in the media are now intoned by glazed commentators as if they were lobotomy victims who can no longer feel the pain:
“Another day, another crisis summit. Time is running out to save the Euro, but not as fast as it’s running out for our interest in this interminable mess.”
Similarly, I scarcely felt a thing as I dialed into our model passive investing portfolio knowing that the previous quarter’s mini-surge had surely foundered on the stony reality of recent events:
- Spain and Cyprus confirmed their entry into the Eurozone’s bailout club.
- Double-dip recession ensnared the UK.
- The US recovery turned to treacle.
- The Emerging Markets slowed down in tandem with the West.
- Japan struggled with a toxic combination of a strong currency and power cost hikes as its nuclear power stations sat idle.
Against that, petrol and commodity prices have fallen, and last week’s Eurozone agreement to directly bail out banks has helped our portfolio to keeps its nose just above water: we’re up 1.25% overall and 3.26% on the year to date.
Still, it’s obvious we’re not going anywhere while Europe lurches around like a wounded Tarantino extra who’s milking his moment.
The Slow and Steady portfolio is Monevator’s model passive portfolio. It was set up at the start of 2011 with £3,000. An extra £750 is invested every quarter into a diversified set of index funds, heavily tilted towards equities. You can read the origin story and catch up on all the previous passive portfolio posts here.
We console ourselves that this crisis must end some day, and that for now we’re able to accumulate equities seemingly fairly cheaply, assuming the Euro mess is resolved.
Continuing to invest in bad times and in battered markets means that our equity purchases are like picking up little battery packs. They don’t do much for us now, but they do store the energy of future growth. Energy that can be released when times turn better. We just have no idea how long that might take.
A gilty pleasure
In the meantime, the bucks and heaves of the market continue to show how the discipline of strategic asset allocation helps prevent us from relying on dodgy rune reading for our investment picks.
For instance, I often hear from people how the place to be is Emerging Markets and that we’ve no business being in government bonds.
Yet since the launch of the Slow & Steady portfolio 18-months ago, Emerging Markets has been our worst performing asset. It’s down -4.31%, which is comfortably worse than our European index fund’s -2.23% decline.
And while American equity is our portfolio’s lead performer, up 11.94%, the intermediate gilt fund is our second biggest hitter at 9.06%. Gilts were also the portfolio’s only bright spot again last quarter, up 3.27%, whereas every equity fund headed south.
Not bad for a reputed ‘the only way is down’ asset class, and pretty much the complete opposite of what many were predicting 18-months ago. It’s a point worth dwelling on simply as an illustration of the reasons why I’d rather base my portfolio on sound investment theory than the noisy proclamations of supposed experts.
New purchases
Every quarter we offer up another £750 to the financial gods.
UK equity
HSBC FTSE All Share Index – TER 0.27%
Fund identifier: GB0000438233
New purchase: £145.40
Buy 42.6779 units @ 340.7p
Target allocation: 19%
Developed World ex UK equities
Split between four funds covering North America, Europe, the developed Pacific and Japan.
Target allocation (across the following four funds): 49%
North American equities
HSBC American Index – TER 0.28%
Fund identifier: GB0000470418
New purchase: £179.81
Buy 87.6705 units @ 205.1p
Target allocation: 26.5%
European equities excluding UK
HSBC European Index – TER 0.31%
Fund identifier: GB0000469071
New purchase: £145.36
Buy 35.6452 units @ 407.8
Target allocation: 12.5%
Japanese equities
HSBC Japan Index – TER 0.29%
Fund identifier: GB0000150374
New purchase: £47.92
Buy 80.3664 units @ 59.63p
Target allocation: 5%
Pacific equities excluding Japan
HSBC Pacific Index – TER 0.37%
Fund identifier: GB0000150713
New purchase: £45.22
Buy 20.5277 units @ 220.3p
Target allocation: 5%
Emerging market equities
Legal & General Global Emerging Markets Index Fund – TER 0.99%
Fund identifier: GB00B4MBFN60
New purchase: £115.14
Buy 268.0051 units @ 42.96p
Target allocation: 10%
UK Gilts
L&G All Stocks Gilt Index Trust: TER 0.23%
Fund identifier: GB0002051406
New purchase: £71.14
Buy 38.6857 units @ 183.9p
Target allocation: 22%
Total cost = £749.99
Cash = 1p
Total cash = 6p
Trading cost = £0
If you’re wondering where to place your portfolio in the wake of Interactive Investor’s fee hike then check out our no-fee broker suggestions.
A reminder on rebalancing: This portfolio is rebalanced to target allocations every quarter, mostly using new contributions. It’s no problem to do as our vanilla index funds don’t incur trading costs.
Take it steady,
The Accumulator
Thanks for the update.
You continue to teach me valuable lessons, and so do gilts!
Year to date performance on the gilt index?
@ MCF – Year-to-date as of today is 1.54%. Last 3 months is 3.66%.
@ Gadgetmind – Fascinating and perplexing isn’t it? Canadian Couch Potato has just written a good article on the effect of rate rises upon bonds: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2012/07/03/how-will-rising-rates-affect-bonds/
@Accumulator — Fascinating post by Couch Potato, which underlines some of the points raised in the recent ‘rule of thumb’ thread. Principally that bond funds will not blow up like an equity fund would in an equivalent ‘bubble’, if that is indeed what we’re seeing.
Of course, while the 1% rate rises across the yield curve he uses seems as fair a model as any, interest rates tend to move a bit sharper once they get going, especially in an environment where central banks are fighting resurgent inflation. That could change the picture rather.
Nice of Blackrock Canada to do the sums for him. I wonder if we could persuade Blackrock/iShares in the UK to do them for us/gilt ETFs?
p.s. Private investors seem to be able to get much better rates on cash here in the UK then he can in Canada. He’s talking 1.3%, whereas 4% is possible here if you lock for a few years, and c.3% over 12 months is pretty easy to find. Much better than short-bonds, at the least.
@TA – Yes, I am still learning regards fixed interest. but my combination of SLXX + ISXF with a sprinkling on Old Mutual Global Strategic Bond Fund has done very well versus gilts over the last 6 months.
BTW, I don’t expect rising rates will hammer gilts as much as the leap from assets so safe that they lose you money to the next best alternative.
Time will tell.
please how can I invest
I am in Ghana
Thanks, I’m watching this one with interest.
I notice that the L&G All Stocks Gilt Index Trust comes in an index-linked variety, which – as far as I can ascertain – is not the one you have here. Instinctively, and no doubt naively, index linking strikes me as a safer way to play what should be the safer part of the portfolio.
Is there a compelling reason to plump for one over the other?
@Edward — This is a demonstration only portfolio. It is not for investment.
I tend to take investment price falls with a fair degree of equanimity unless the background facts have changed
I don’t understand why people get excited when share prices go up, when they plan to buy more in the short term and sell them at a much later date (e.g. investing for retirement)
Emerging market share price falls just make me happier to hold them as their low valuation multiples just look more and more attractive (see last blog post by Reiterment Investing Today)
Conversely the more the price on my gilts rises, the more tempted I am to dump them and invest in something else
I think looking at investment returns without looking at the underlying change in valuation multiples is just as dumb as looking at returns as the price of a share or bond without considering the dividends it has paid you
@ Simon H – the rationale for excluding an index-linked gilt fund is that there is lots of inflation protection already built in to the portfolio as it is around 80% invested in equities. So from a strategic asset allocation point-of-view I made the decision to fully allocate the bond component to nominal gilts as a defence against deflation. I could fully understand someone investing part or all of the bond component in index-linked gilts depending on their personal risk exposure. The portfolio’s hypothetical time horizon is still 19-years, but as the equities lifestyle into gilts I fully expect index-linked gilts to become part of the mix.
@ Neverland – in this portfolio the gilts are a volatility air bag and an equity diversifier, so the time will never be right to dump them, even though that may cost the portfolio some return at some point.
Dear Accumulator,
I am new to this website, which I find excellent.
Please can you advise me where I can buy those HSBC trackers cheaply? I am particularly interested in the US tracker. Hargreaves levies a £2 a month fee, which is uneconomical. And Fidelity charges a 0.25% annual management charge in addition to the 0.27% TER. I am thinking of investing a few thousand, not much.
Many thanks in advance,
Timur
Hi Timur,
Glad you like the site. Check out this piece for some suggestions: http://monevator.com/no-fee-discount-broker-options/
“Not bad for a reputed ‘the only way is down’ asset class, and pretty much the complete opposite of what many were predicting 18-months ago. It’s a point worth dwelling on simply as an illustration of the reasons why I’d rather base my portfolio on sound investment theory than the noisy proclamations of supposed experts.”
Proof perhaps that a contrarian investment strategy may be a winner!