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2008 could well be the year when we investors are reminded about the benefits of asset allocation. This rather academic sounding discipline is generally forgotten in times of roaring stock markets, but when the weather gets rougher, people are glad they’ve packed umbrellas as well as beach towels.
I plan to learn a lot more about asset allocation ahead of 2008, but the principle is simple enough – don’t have all your eggs in one basket. Most private investors know about diversification, buying a range of shares or an index tracking fund to spread their risk of a particular company putting in a stinking performance or even going bust. But eggs is eggs, and a basket of shares is only a basket of shares.
You need different asset classes as well as different assets
Asset allocation says you need to have several baskets, investing in the likes of cash, government bonds (Gilts in the UK, Treasury bills in the US), corporate bonds, property, precious metals, commodities, emerging markets and so on, alongside your shares. The downside is likely reduced returns, especially in the long-term.
The upside is reduced volatility, as a bad performance by one asset class is hopefully compensated for by better returns from another, uncorrelated, asset. Some commentators go further to claim average performance will be boosted with optimal asset allocation, although luck and timing would seem to play a part here. Shares are the best performing asset by far over the past 150 years, after all.
So how much should you put into what asset class? That’s the $6 million question, and there’s no firm answer you can trust, since even the most detailed studies are based on past returns. Nobody knows what will happen in the future. [click to continue...]








